September 23, 2023


FPL Tips, News and Chip Strategy

FPL tips: Wilson, Mitrovic, Jesus the best forwards to buy GW15

FPL forward picks: the best forwards

With only two gameweeks left before the World Cup break, the need for we FPL managers to finish the first-half of this season well, is very important; in other for us to this, we need to transfer in the best and the most in-form FPL assets.

In this article, we’d be focusing on FPL forwards. We’d be taking a look at some of the most in-form forwards in the game and then we’d decide on which one would be the best pick from GW15-GW16.

The best FPL forward picks for GW15

Well, there are three players that we’ve got on our radar this gameweek, We’ve got Gabby Jesus, Callum Wilson and Mitrovic. What we want to do, is decide on which one would be a better buy.

In order for us to decide on the best forward to buy this gameweek, we’d be looking at the fixtures of these players, their form and their underlying stats.

Here’s a nice fixture ticker created by fpltips__.

From the fixture ticker, we can clearly see that a lot teams have pretty nice fixtures from now-GW16.

We have the likes of Everton, Brighton, Bournemouth and West Ham these four teams have really good fixtures and you might also want to keep an eye on forwards from these clubs.

The likes of Scamacca, Maupay, Calvert-Lewin or Solanke are also decent picks.

Right now, the forwards we want to focus on are Wilson, Jesus and Mitrovic. The reason why we’d be focusing on these three is because of the form they are in.

Who has the better set of fixtures

If we’re going strictly by fixture difficulty ratings, then Jesus and Wilson are the two with the best set of fixtures. Newcastle in their next two, face Southampton and Chelsea while Arsenal face Chelsea and Wolves.

Mitrovic and Fulham on the other hand, have two really tough fixtures and find themselves at the bottom of the fixture ticker list – Fulham face both Man City and Man United in GW15&16 respectively.

So if you’re using the fixture metric, it is safe to say that Wilson and Jesus have the better set of fixtures, while Mitrovic has the worst set of fixtures.

But we all know that FPL is a funny game and many a times players turn up in the hardest of games. We’ve seen that with Trossard and that could also be the case in the next two gameweeks, with Mitrovic.

So it all depends on the sort of FPL manager you are, if you are one who wants to have players with good fixtures or you’re on a wildcard, then it’d be better to go for Wilson or Jesus.

Which FPL forward is on form at the moment

Form is another important metric to consider when selecting FPL assets. The form of our three forwards, is what we want to consider now.

Which one of them have been banging in goals, getting assists and which one of them have picked up the most points in recent gameweeks. We now want to look at how well these forwards have done in their last five gameweeks.

GoalsAssistsTotal Points
Callum Wilson3333
Gabby Jesus0318
Stats of Mitrovic, Jesus and Wilson in the last 5 gameweeks

It is very clear here, that Wilson is the player who is on form. He has picked up 33 points in his last five gameweeks, scoring 3 goals and getting himself 3 assists as well.

He, in that period has also outscored Erling Haaland of Man City, which is crazy. Wilson has been overlooked by we FPL managers, he owned by just 9.1% of managers which means he’s a really good differential as well.

Mitrovic is second on this list, but he’s only passing Jesus with 2 points – the gap between the two isn’t that much.

So in terms of form, Wilson is clearly the better forward pick. He also tops the metric for fixtures as well, which means that he’s currently the best forward out of the three.

Which forward has the better underlying numbers

The last and final metric is stats. Which of these players have pretty good underlying stats, which one is taking shots in the box, getting big chances, which one has good xG and xA, this is what we want to have a look at right now.

1. Callum Wilson stats

FPL forward picks: the best forwards

Here’s what Callum Wilson’s last five games underlying numbers look like. It’s very obvious that Wilson is always heavily involved in Newcastle’s attack.

We can say that because every game, he seems to be taking a decent amount of shots, but as we can see, his expected goals aren’t all that good; which means the quality of some of the shots he’s taking aren’t ones that threaten the goal keeper that much.

Below, we can see where Callum Wilson is taking most of his shots from. The striker seems to be taking a lot of shots from inside the box.

Which honestly is a good thing and what you’d want from your forward as an FPL manager. In his last five games, he was expected to score 3.78 goals, but he ended up with 3 goals.

Wilson shot map
Wilson stats gotten from understat

We do think he has pretty good underlying numbers and he’s one worth buying this gameweek. Well, we’re not done yet, let’s look at Jesus and Mitrovic’s numbers.

2. Gabby Jesus

Here’s what Gabby Jesus’ underlying numbers look like:

Gabby Jesus stats

From the image, we can see that Jesus just like Wilson, is involved a lot in Arsenal’s attack- he takes a decent amount of shots in games. The issue with Jesus, is that he doesn’t convert his chances.

In his last five games, he was expected to score 3.72 goals, in reality he ended up with just one goal. When you compare that with Wilson’s, you’re more drawn towards the Newcastle man.

Jesus shot map

We can also see that Jesus is taking shots from almost everywhere, he really is a good player he passes the eye test and would be a good forward to have in your FPL team.

Another thing that doesn’t work in favor of Jesus is the fact that he’s not on penalties and that gives the likes of Wilson and Mitrovic an edge over him.

3. Aleksandar Mitrovic

Mitrovic stats

Mitrovic’s numbers are really good and impressive. We remember that earlier this season, Mitrovic’s underlying stats were so good, that only Haaland’s were better.

And this is also evident here in his last four games. He’s taking good amount shots and his xG is also great. He’s Fulham’s main man and he’s the one they’re looking to feed most times.

His numbers are better than that of Jesus and Wilson. Here is his shot map for this season:

Mitrovic shot map

Out of the three, the player that has the best underlying numbers is Mitrovic, then Wilson comes in second and then the player in last, is Gabby Jesus.

Who is the best forward to have in your FPL team

Well, based on our analysis, Wilson is the best forward you can have in your FPL team at the moment. He has good fixtures, his form is the best out of the three and his underlying numbers are also up there.

In second, is Mitrovic. He has the worst set of fixtures out of the three, but his form and underlying numbers give him an edge over Jesus.

Then lastly, we have Gabby Jesus who just has better fixtures than Mitrovic. Another really important thing to keep in mind, is that Jesus has four yellow cards and if he picks up one more in GW15, he’d miss GW16.

Our recommendation this gameweek, would be to buy Wilson if you’re looking to replace any of your forwards. If you have Mitrovic we’d say you can still hold on to him or you can swap him for Wilson, who is clearly a much better pick.