October 4, 2023


FPL Tips, News and Chip Strategy

FPL Experts tips: GW4 FPL Guide, Captaincy, Insights, and Picks

FPL Experts tips: GW4 FPL Guide, Captaincy, Insights, and Picks

Welcome to our comprehensive Gameweek 4 guide, where we unravel the intricate web of choices and statistics that shape your Fantasy Premier League (FPL) decisions. In this edition, we delve into crucial player differentials, captaincy contenders, and strategic insights to assist both seasoned managers and newcomers alike.

Gameweek 3 Eye Catchers

Sterling Shines Again with Stellar Performance

In Gameweek 3, Raheem Sterling’s impressive form continues to capture attention. He delivered a standout display against LUT, securing two goals and an assist. Sterling’s consistent performance makes him an appealing candidate for team selection and potential captaincy.

Emerging Stars: Cash, Watkins, and Diaby Impress

Aston Villa’s Cash delivered a brilliant performance, scoring a brace, while Watkins showcased his skills with a third assist in as many games during AVL’s victory against BUR. Diaby’s performance stands out as well; his goal and assist highlight his potential as a valuable asset. These emerging players deserve consideration for your team as their contributions become more significant.

Maddison’s Return Delights Patient Owners

James Maddison’s return to the starting lineup brought joy to patient fantasy team owners. His remarkable performance against BOU resulted in a double-digit haul. UDOGIE also caught the eye with another impressive display. These players’ contributions underscore their relevance in team selection discussions.

Midfielder Watch: Rodri and Saka Show Promise

Rodri’s consistent returns cannot be ignored, especially as he appears to have more freedom to move around with Kovacic by his side. Valued at just £5.7, he’s a potential bargain. Saka’s return to penalty duty for ARS increases his appeal as a fantasy asset.

Promising Performances: Awoniyi and Gibbs-White

Awoniyi’s speed on the break led to his third goal of the season, solidifying his place as a consistent contributor. Gibbs-White’s two assists demonstrate his potential as well. With upcoming fixtures favoring both players, they should be on your radar for potential transfers.

Bowen’s Impact Continues: Goal and Assist

Bowen’s contributions remain noteworthy, as he netted a goal and provided an assist against BHA. His consistent threat on the field keeps him firmly on the watchlist for fantasy managers.

Gameweek 3 Stats

Shooting Stars: Haaland and Alvarez

Erling Haaland and Alvarez both stood out by taking eight shots each against SHU, the highest count in Gameweek 3. Haaland’s shots were particularly potent, with all of them originating from inside the box, and four being categorized as significant scoring opportunities.

Key Creators: Diaby, Bruno, and Garner

Diaby, Bruno Fernandes, and Garner caught the eye by each creating two big chances. Bruno’s exceptional expected assists (xA) value of 0.95 underscores his pivotal role in playmaking during the gameweek.

Cash’s Shooting Prowess

Cash’s performance included an impressive six shots, with five originating from within the penalty area. His offensive involvement enhances his appeal as a fantasy asset, especially considering his position as a defender.

Previewing Gameweek 4

As we move ahead, let’s delve into the insights for Gameweek 4.

Top Win Percentages for GW4

The upcoming matches present intriguing win percentage statistics:

  1. Manchester City (86%) vs. Fulham
  2. Chelsea (71%) vs. Nott’m Forest
  3. Brentford (62%) vs. Bournemouth
  4. Liverpool (60%) vs. Aston Villa
  5. West Ham (59%) vs. Luton
  6. Arsenal (57%) vs. Manchester United

Notably, there have been nine red cards already this season, a stark contrast to the mere 30 throughout the entirety of the previous season (22/23).

Clean Sheet Odds for GW4

The odds for clean sheets in Gameweek 4 stands as follows:

  1. Manchester City – 56%
  2. Chelsea – 50%
  3. Crystal Palace – 44%
  4. Brentford – 40%
  5. West Ham – 40%
  6. Everton – 36%
  7. Tottenham Hotspur – 33%
  8. Arsenal – 31%

Over 2.5 Goal Predictions for GW4

Expectations for over 2 goals in Gameweek 4 are as follows:

  1. Manchester City – 58%
  2. Chelsea – 40%
  3. Liverpool – 40%
  4. Arsenal – 36%
  5. Brentford – 33%
  6. Tottenham Hotspur – 31%
  7. West Ham – 27%
  8. Brighton – 25%

Key Insights: Manchester United Considerations

Manchester United’s absence of key players like Shaw, Varane, and Malacia should be taken into account. Think twice before parting with your Arsenal attacking assets.

Likely Anytime Scorers for GW4

Scoring prospects for Gameweek 4 shape up like this:

  1. Erling Haaland – 71%
  2. Mohamed Salah – 48%
  3. Jackson – 48%
  4. Alvarez – 48%
  5. Son – 45%
  6. Diogo Jota – 42%
  7. Darwin – 42%
  8. Mbuemo – 40%

Gameweek 4’s Potential Assist Providers

Anticipated sources of assists in Gameweek 4 are as follows:

  1. Phil Foden – 36%
  2. Jack Grealish – 36%
  3. James Maddison – 31%
  4. James Ward-Prowse – 31%
  5. Ben Chilwell – 29%
  6. Gusto – 29%
  7. Erling Haaland – 27%
  8. Raheem Sterling – 27%

Projected Points for Gameweek 4

Based on current trends, here are the predicted points for Gameweek 4:

  1. Erling Haaland – 8.9
  2. Mohamed Salah – 6.5
  3. Jarrod Bowen – 6.4
  4. Raheem Sterling – 6.4
  5. Bryan Mbuemo – 6.4
  6. Son Heung-min – 6.0
  7. Bukayo Saka – 5.9
  8. Phil Foden – 5.8
  9. James Maddison – 5.7
  10. Wissa – 5.7

For more predictions and odds check out our article: FPL GW4: Clean Sheet Odds, Anytime Scorer Predictions, and FPL Points Projections

Gameweek 4 Captaincy Choices

Haaland vs FUL: The Leading Option

Erling Haaland stands as the prime captaincy choice for Gameweek 4, despite missing a penalty yet still finding the net against SHU in GW3. His consistent scoring record makes him a standout candidate. Facing a FUL defense that has conceded 14 significant chances (20th rank) in the first three GWs, Haaland’s potential is glaring.

A Firm Choice: He’s a guaranteed captaincy pick this week.

Sterling/Jackson vs NFO: A Strong Alternative

If you’re considering an alternative to Haaland, the attacking assets of CHE against NFO look appealing. Sterling and Jackson displayed nearly identical shots, expected goals (xG), and expected assists (xA) stats against LUT last weekend. Sterling’s clinical performance, marked by 2 goals and 1 assist compared to Jackson’s single goal, could swing the balance.

Captaincy Consideration: Sterling or Jackson could be an interesting captaincy choice for Gameweek 4.

Saka vs MUN: Exploiting United’s Defensive Woes

The ARS talisman, Saka, boasts a record of 3 goals in his last 3 Premier League encounters against MUN. With United fielding a makeshift defense due to injuries, Saka is poised for success. Regaining penalty duties and exploiting the right-hand side of the pitch, he holds promise.

Captaincy Contemplation: Saka presents a solid captaincy option for Gameweek 4.

Other Notable Picks

  • SALAH vs AVL: Never count Salah out for a substantial haul at Anfield. However, Saudi interest should be kept in mind.
  • CHILWELL: While he frequently ventures forward, anticipate a challenge in securing a clean sheet against NFO.
  • RASHFORD: With 3 goals in his last 2 matches against ARS, Rashford’s scoring prowess is notable.
  • MADDISON: Enjoying a favorable fixture, Maddison’s integral role in TOT’s attacks makes him a viable choice.

Find out more in our captain picks article: The Best Gameweek 4 Captain – Saka, Bowen, Sterling, Salah or Haaland

Gameweek 4 Differentials

Bowen vs LUT: A Promising Gamble

  • Price: £7.0 / 6.8% TSB (Team Selected By)
  • A delightful punt for Gameweek 4, but be prepared for subsequent challenging fixtures against MCI and LIV.

Alvarez vs FUL: A Favored Selection

  • Price: £6.6 / 9.5% TSB
  • Currently preferred and often on set pieces, Alvarez offers an attractive differential option.

Richarlison vs BOU: Potential Midweek Performer

  • Price: £6.9 / 3.0% TSB
  • Having secured a goal in midweek action, Richarlison could maintain his momentum.

Maddison vs Sterling: Analyzing the Season’s Performance

Key Season Stats Comparison

Shots in the box76
Big chances22
xGi (expected goal involvements)2.91.5
  • Maddison and Sterling share a similar goal threat this season.
  • Maddison boasts better assist potential.
  • Maddison’s data has shown more consistency; Sterling’s standout data largely came against Luton.

Sterling’s Season Progression

GW1 vs LIV

  • Shots in the box: 0
  • Big chance involvements: 0

GW2 vs WHM

  • Shots in the box: 1
  • Big chance involvements: 0

GW3 vs LUT

  • Shots in the box: 5
  • Big chance involvements: 3

Question: Is Sterling’s recent improvement due to facing Luton, or will his underlying data continue to improve? With fixtures considered, Sterling proves to be a better choice this week than Maddison, especially as Chelsea faces AVL & FUL in GW6/7, while Spurs confront ARS & LIV.

Suggestion: Maddison suits those contemplating a Wildcard in GW9. On the other hand, Sterling’s forthcoming matchups with Nott’m Forest, Burnley and Bourne mouth in the coming weeks means he’s a better buy at the moment. Given their similar potential upside, it’s advisable to opt for Maddison or Sterling over Foden this week, considering uncertainties about minutes, particularly with the UCL in play.

Key Factor: Not being involved in Europe benefits both Maddison and Sterling greatly.

Should You Keep or Sell Manchester United Midfielders?

Examining non-penalty xGi (expected goal involvements) for the first 3 GWs:

  1. Bruno Fernandes – 3.1 (Leading)
  2. Maddison – 2.9
  3. Saka – 2.4
  4. Haaland – 2.4
  5. Cash – 2.3
  6. Jackson – 2.3
  7. Mitoma – 2.3

Remarkably, Bruno Fernandes holds the highest non-penalty xGi across the league in the initial 3 GWs. Notably, he’s also experienced the most underperformance compared to his non-penalty xGi during this span.

Conclusion: Retaining Manchester United midfielders, particularly Bruno Fernandes, is a wise decision.

Joao Pedro Replacement: Jackson or Alvarez?

If you’re considering a replacement for Joao Pedro, Jackson is a prime candidate if not already owned.

Notable Fact: Jackson leads the league in big chances registered, showcasing his attacking threat.

Jackson vs Alvarez: Comparing Key Stats

Big chances52

Highlighted Observation: Jackson’s stats outshine Alvarez’s:

  • Higher xG
  • More big chances created
  • Greater xGi

Undoubtedly, Jackson’s performance against Luton, featuring 2 big chances and 1 big chance created, highlights his potential.

Conclusion: Those who don’t own Jackson might have narrowly escaped a missed opportunity. Despite feeling slightly underwhelmed by his 7 points, his consistent data across all three games with an xG exceeding 0.5 indicates encouraging prospects.

Find out the best transfer picks for this gameweek in our article: FPL GW4 Tips: Gameweek 4 Transfer, Strategy and Team Selection.

GW4 Predicted Lineup For Every PL Team

See how every premier league side is expected to lineup this gameweek in our series of predicted lineup articles:

  1. PL GW4 Predicted Lineup and Injury News: Arsenal vs. Man United
  2. PL GW4 Predicted Lineup and Injury News: Liverpool vs. Aston Villa
  3. Brentford vs. Bournemouth GW4: Predicted Lineups and Injury Updates
  4. Newcastle vs. Brighton GW4: Predicted Lineups and Injury Updates
  5. PL GW4 Man City vs Fulham Predicted Lineup and Injury News
  6. Burnley vs. Spurs: GW4 Predicted Lineups and Injury Updates 23/24 PL Season
  7. PL GW4 West Ham vs Luton Town Predicted Lineup and Injury News
  8. PL GW4 Everton vs Sheffield United Predicted Lineups and Injury News
  9. PL GW4 Chelsea vs Nott’m Forest Predicted Lineup and Injury News

You might also like: Premier League Gameweek 4 Score Predictions: Expert Analysis